In the first quarter 2026, megaproject starts reached $57.7 billion, up from $21.9 billion a year earlier. Megaprojects, defined as those valued at more than $1 billion, also continued to exert an outsized influence on the market. Regionally, total construction starts in October rose in the South Central (+84.9% m/m), Midwest (+18.8% m/m), South Atlantic (+8.7% m/m) and the West (+1.1% m/m). Institutional starts improved 3.7%, driven by gains in other institutional categories (+49.5% m/m) – and offset by declines in education buildings (-20.8% m/m) and healthcare facilities (-2.7% m/m). Commercial starts were up 19.5%, alongside growth in offices and data centers (+45.5% m/m) and retail stores (+15.1% m/m).
- If you don’t build out the energy grid, the data centers put too great a demand on the current grid.
- This plot shows Jobs and Volume growth closely match from 2011 to 2018.
- It is that more of the opportunity is being driven by a specific class of large, capital-intensive projects, while Canadian activity faces a more difficult year across the board.
- Nonbuilding construction starts grew 59.4% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $645 billion.
- It is not clear if the two halted projects mentioned in the article above were already committed construction starts or future proposed starts.
The avg of last 4 (consecutive) months is 33% higher than the avg of the best previous 4 mo ever (even non-consecutive). Both are expected to grow more than the inflation index, so there will be real volume growth to report. New construction starts for Sept are down 19% from August and yet starts are still near the highest levels ever. After adjusting for 26% inflation, constant business volume is down 17%. Since then, the actual change in business volume has increased 18%, but that still leaves volume nearly 10% lower than the pre-pandemic high.
This analysis does not take into consideration the inflation impact of a recession or significant new tariffs. The plot below shows the cumulative inflation index, or the cumulative compounded effect of inflation for any two points in time. This analysis will make no effort to discuss the potential impact of immigrants in the workforce, but we must recognize the makeup of who is filling these jobs. Even though several markets are down for the year, every sector (Res, Nonres, Nonbldg) is at all-time high.
BOSTON, MA — November 21, 2025 — Total construction starts were up 21.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of https://dnews7.com/case-studies-successful-real-estate-investments-in-germany.html $1.53 trillion, according to Dodge Construction Network.
Top 10 US Construction Starts by Dollar Volume – June 2026
Also remember, PPI does not include imports or tariffs on imports. We may not know the total impact for several more months. I’ve increased the inflation outlook since Feb to a range of 4.5% to 5%. That in turn could slow capital expenditures, which, in this case, is new construction starts. Many economists predict the current trade impacts will slow overall economic growth. Typical jobs growth is 2.5% to 3.5% per year, even though spending can sometimes far outpace that.
That sector was upgraded to reflect a stronger data center profile, reinforcing how concentrated large-project activity has become in the current cycle. The U.S. Nonresidential construction forecast continues to be shaped by the rapid buildout of AI-related infrastructure, especially data centers, which is pushing nonresidential activity higher even as other parts of the market remain more measured. Get the latest month’s construction starts in our monthly report, along with trend graphs, regional starts data, and more. Meanwhile, hotels (-19.3% m/m), warehouses (-1.7% m/m) and parking garages (-46.1% m/m) faced declines between September and October. You can confidentially report concerns to the KPMG International hotline KPMG Economics is continuously monitoring and analyzing economic and geopolitical data so we can provide business leaders with reliable and timely insight and analysis.
With a 1,200,000 jobs share of the workforce, that backlog would provide support for 15 months. Nonbuilding Infrastructure starting backlog is up 12% each of the last two years boosted by strong starts in 2022 and 2023. Nonresidential Bldgs starting backlog for 2024 received a boost from all the starts in 2022 and 2023. The easiest way to understand this is to compare total annual construction starts to total annual spending. Nonresidential Buildings, in 2022 posted the largest ever one-year increase in construction starts, up 50%. It will continue to add lesser impact into 2025.
Jobs are slightly ahead of volume growth, particularly in the Non-building Infrastructure sector.” In the Construction Analytics Outlook Feb 2025 report I said, “Don’t be surprised if 2025 construction jobs growth slows a bit. Mothball if partially built factory, not only expensive for owner, but also negative impact to contractor’s forecast revenues. Whenever we get an unusually large increase in new construction starts and spending, the tapering off of those projects leads to a decline on the tail end. It is not clear if the two halted projects mentioned in the article above were already committed construction starts or future proposed starts.
- I’ve increased the inflation outlook since Feb to a range of 4.5% to 5%.
- The topline still points to activity, but more of the momentum is being carried by specific project types and a narrower set of large awards.
- If new construction starts in the year are greater than construction spending in the year, then for the following year starting backlog increases.
- This update changes the Constant$ amount, but not the Constant$ percent growth.
- In Canada, the outlook is weaker and broader based, with all major sectors expected to move lower.For contractors, distributors and manufacturers, the takeaway is not just that U.S. growth remains intact.
‘It’s about taking care of people’: How top contractors staff data center jobs
Construction Volume is a measure of business activity. In 2022, Nonresidential buildings inflation was 12%, so business volume was 12% less than spending, or 12% less than revenue. Spending during the year is the value of business volume plus the inflation on that volume. This update changes the Constant$ amount, but not the Constant$ percent growth. This shows business volume year to year, can be a lot different than spending would indicate.
The point here is that tariffs impact pricing decisions on all domestically produced products, not just the imported products. We have https://detroitapartment.net/redevelopment-in-the-apartment-what-and-how-to-do.html yet to see any significant impact from tariffs, and there is sure to be impacts to many construction inputs. Despite the dip in all categories, construction starts still outpaced levels at this time last year.
These two plots show nonres bldgs as it was forecast based on June data on Aug. 1, and again as of Sept spending/Outlook22 starts data released Nov. 3. All sectors now are forecast higher spending in 2022, but the biggest change is in nonres bldgs. There have been major revisions to new starts since the June and July starts reports. The 1st six months of residential starts in 2022 is at an all-time high. Historically, then starts would fall back to the 3mo or 6mo (normal) avg rate within the next two months.
The rate of spending is predicted to increase 10 out of 12 months in 2023, a total increase of 11% over the year. The monthly rate of spending is up 12 of the last 14 months, has increased for 6 consecutive months and is up 20% in the last 6 months. In 2022 we realized the largest ever one-year increase in new nonresidential buildings construction starts, up 40%. In 2022, Nonresidential buildings inflation was 11.9%, so business volume was 11.9% less than spending, or less than revenue. This simply shows business volume in any given year is not as high as spending would indicate.